A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
